You Can’t Go Wrong as An MBA Seller in 2024

Analysts at JPMorgan are forecasting a historic shift in the American retail landscape by the year 2024, and it is only good news for MBA sellers.

Their prediction? Amazon is on the verge of dethroning Walmart to become the United States’ largest retailer. This monumental transition is underpinned by a variety of factors, including:

• the escalating prevalence of e-commerce
• the relentless drive for quicker delivery times
• the enduring allure of Amazon Prime

The ramifications of this prospective shift are profound and signal a transformative moment for the retail industry, and continued growth for MBA sellers in the face of global economic headwinds.

As we peer into the crystal ball of 2024, JPMorgan’s estimations unveil a compelling narrative. Amazon is poised for an 11.6% year-over-year growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV), an impressive figure that is expected to culminate in a staggering $477 billion. This robust expansion underscores Amazon’s remarkable resilience, a development closely watched by Wall Street, particularly given the challenging terrain that e-commerce businesses navigated in the last few years.

While the e-commerce sector experienced substantial growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, the last year marked a departure from this trajectory. It was the first time since 2009 that U.S. e-commerce growth failed to reach double digits, settling at a modest 8.5% year-over-year increase.

This deceleration was attributed to many factors, including:

• macroeconomic pressures
• the resurgence of brick-and-mortar retailers
• the shift toward omnichannel retail strategies post-pandemic

How Amazon Beats the Industry As A Whole:

So far 2023 bolstered Amazon by several key drivers:

1. Expansion into Under-Penetrated Categories: Amazon’s impressive foray into under-penetrated categories, most notably grocery and apparel, has been pivotal in propelling its GMV to new heights. This diversification fosters resilience and adaptability in the face of shifting market dynamics.
2. Faster Delivery Speeds: The relentless pursuit of faster delivery speeds is poised to pay dividends. In 2023, Amazon is charting a course toward achieving its fastest delivery speeds ever, accentuating its appeal to consumers who value swift, hassle-free shipping.
3. The Centrifugal Force of “Prime”: Central to Amazon’s enduring success is the Prime flywheel – the magnetic force that retains and expands the company’s subscriber base. Amazon Prime, with its myriad benefits, including expedited shipping and access to exclusive content, continues to enthrall customers at every stage of their shopping journey.
4. Business-to-Business Capabilities: Amazon’s strategic focus on enhancing its business-to-business capabilities unlocks new revenue streams and augments its overall growth trajectory.
5. Third-Party Sellers: The ecosystem of third-party sellers operating on Amazon’s platform is expected to burgeon further. This enriches the platform’s product offerings and market diversity, catering to an ever-expanding clientele.

Notably, JPMorgan projects that the global count of Amazon Prime members will crest at approximately 300 million by the end of this year, eclipsing the 200 million milestone disclosed by former CEO Jeff Bezos way back in 2021.

Amazon’s stranglehold on the e-commerce arena is poised to tighten further, with JPMorgan foreseeing the company’s e-commerce market share reaching 42.2% by the conclusion of 2023. This reflects a noteworthy 106 basis point increase year-over-year.

Amazon and AI (Don’t Be Scared)

Moreover, JPMorgan’s bullish outlook for Amazon extends to the realm of generative artificial intelligence (AI). The analysts anticipate the incorporation of AI-driven product search mechanisms akin to ChatGPT, culminating in an interactive, conversational shopping experience. This technological evolution holds the promise of personalized customer interactions, not only benefiting Amazon but also enabling other retailers to enhance their offerings through AI-driven insights and recommendations.

In sum, forging e-commerce strategies tethered to Amazon presents an great opportunity for growth. Amazon’s unwavering commitment to innovation, customer-centricity, and relentless expansion positions it as a vanguard in the retail landscape, with boundless potential for the future.

So, that means more shoppers looking for your goods. But what are you going to offer in 2024 to take advantage of this?

Product Trends to Capitalize on in 2024

As we gaze toward the horizon of 2024, a tapestry of product trends and thematic opportunities comes into focus. These trends beckon businesses to seize the moment, crafting products that resonate with evolving consumer preferences.

Too soon? Well, search for any of these items and you’ll find a whole host of MBA sellers already ahead of you (but there’s still time to catch up).

1. Election-Themed Merchandise: The specter of a significant election in 2024 casts a spotlight on political merchandise. Businesses can create a spectrum of merchandise appealing to diverse political affiliations, fostering inclusivity (or not, depending on how strongly you feel about the particular side of an issue or a preferred candidate).

2. Total Eclipse Merchandise: The rare occurrence of a total solar eclipse in 2024 presents an astronomical marketing opportunity (sorry/not sorry). Products tied to this celestial event, such as commemorative T-shirts and accessories, hold allure for astronomy enthusiasts and eclipse enthusiasts alike.

3. Public Domain-Based Products: 2024 heralds the entry of certain works into the public domain. This presents an avenue for creating products inspired by classic literature, art, and cultural treasures. However, it is essential to navigate copyright and trademark considerations diligently to steer clear of potential legal complexities. That said, a certain famous rodent’s first appearance finally enters the public domain, despite the exhaustive effort of its parent company to prevent it. The law says it’s perfectly fine, but we urge caution: a popular saying around our offices is: “Their lawyers are bigger than our laws.”

4. Paris Olympics Merchandise: The Paris Olympics in 2024 will capture global attention, making it a focal point for sports-themed merchandise. Sellers can craft products celebrating the spirit of the Olympics, being mindful of official symbols and trademarks. For example, the famous three-on-two symbol, as well as the order of colors, is an untouchable and vigorously-defended trademark. But, there are creative ways around it, including simple uses of symbology such as the Eiffel Tower and easily-accessible sports icons.

5. Chinese New Year Products: The Chinese New Year remains a vibrant and celebratory occasion, particularly in regions with significant Chinese communities. Products featuring zodiac animals, traditional symbols, and festive themes are well-positioned for success during this auspicious season. 2024 is the Year of the Dragon (specifically the Wood Dragon), so there is a lot of fun to be had with such a powerful symbol.

6. Federal and Religious Holidays: Crafting products aligned with federal holidays and religious observances offers a perennial strategy. These occasions often entail gift-giving and festive decorations, creating opportunities for businesses to cater to seasonal demand. We have written on many occasions about lesser-known but growing religious holidays such as Diwali and Eid-al-Fitr.

By astutely aligning with these emerging trends and orchestrating innovative, high-quality product offerings, businesses can fortify their footing in the e-commerce landscape, ensuring growth and prosperity as 2024 unfolds its opportunities.